Monday, October 20, 2008

Lending Status

The following is a message from the President of Long Realty, Rosey Koberlein that she sent October 17, 2008. Long Mortgage only does residential loans. If you're seeking financing for commercial projects, give me a call. I regularly work with several lenders who have consistently worked hard for my clients, and nearly always come through with a solution. And for the cases where a commercial buyer wants a FAST closing, or simply cannot qualify for conventional financing, Owner Carryback financing can open the door.

From Rosey:

With all of the confusion that is going on in the economic world, and the way the media is spinning the story, you would think that money is not available to even buy a home!!! I think it is important for you to hear some truth before you do your open houses this week-end. I asked Long Mortgage to tell their story from this week’s activity---Here you go---

There have been a lot of questions as to whether or not mortgage companies are still lending money. Long Mortgage is lending money and will continue to lend money to our borrowers as we always have. We see the press talking about a “Credit Freeze” or “Credit Crunch” this in no way means that mortgage lending has come to a halt. This simply means that guidelines have tightened to avoid the higher risk loans that have caused much of our economic trouble. Long Mortgage and its partner Wells Fargo have always practiced responsible lending and as a result is now one of the strongest, most resilient banks in the world.

Please don’t make the assumption that there may not be money or loan programs available for your client. Long Mortgage is still providing all types of loans.

Thought you might enjoy hearing some stories of Loan which have been made in the last week.

Tony Poe of the River Campbell Branch recently closed Jumbo $600,000 cash out refinance. Long Mortgage has access to Wells Fargo’s Private Mortgage Banking that specializes in Jumbo loans and “High End Products”.

Cleve Smith of the Tanque Verde Branch recently closed a 90% LTV interest only conventional loan in 5 days. This loan was turned down by another lender and the borrower was told it couldn’t be done.

Brian York and Heike Shockley or our Sierra Vista Branch approved and closed a client on an FHA loan that was turned down by another lender after being in process for 2 months! Using a local assistance program the borrowers got into the home for less than $1,000 out of pocket.

Bond money is available to combine with FHA financing that can provide up to %100 LTV.(borrowers will be required to pay closing costs) Bond money is limited and on a first come first serve basis, when it’s gone it’s gone. You will need to speak with a Mortgage Consultant to see if your borrower qualifies for this assistance.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Commercial Real Estate Pinched by Wall Street Woes

Commercial Real Estate Pinched by Wall Street Woes

WASHINGTON, September 17, 2008

Activity is slowing in commercial real estate sectors in response to tightening credit and slow economic growth, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK* of the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said problems on Wall Street are affecting commercial real estate. “Although capital remains available for residential loans, the credit crunch is pronounced in commercial lending,” he said. “Combined with a slowing economy, the lack of credit is curtailing activity in the commercial real estate sectors. As a result, there’s been a slowdown in the net absorption of space, which is leading to higher vacancies and more modest rent growth.”
Patricia Nooney of St. Louis, chair of the Realtors® Commercial Alliance Committee, said market conditions are complex. “We’re in an unusual situation where transactions are being curtailed not for lack of demand, but for serious challenges in obtaining financing,” she said. “In this environment it’s even more important for anyone needing commercial space to work with a Realtor® who knows the local commercial real estate market and available resources.”
The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research.

Office Market
This year’s erosion in the job market has slowed demand for office space. “Job cuts since the beginning of the year will bring more vacant office space to the market,” Yun said. “Office rent growth will slow greatly as a result.”

Office vacancy rates are expected to increase to 14.4 percent in the second quarter of 2009 from 12.9 percent in the second quarter of this year. Annual rent growth in the office sector should be 3.2 percent this year before contracting 0.4 percent in 2009; it rose 8.0 percent last year.
Net absorption of office space in 57 markets tracked, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is projected at 14.7 million square feet this year and 10.9 million in 2009, down sharply from 57.3 million square feet last year.

Industrial Market
The economic slowdown has curtailed warehouse demand, although the drop in the dollar continues to favor American goods. “The industrial sector will hold up relatively better on the strength of exports,” Yun said.

Vacancy rates in the industrial sector are likely to rise to 10.8 percent in the second quarter of 2009, up from 9.9 percent in the second quarter of this year. Annual rent growth is forecast at 1.1 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009; it rose 3.6 percent last year.
Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked will probably total a negative 16.7 million square feet this year and then rise to 35.3 million in 2009, compared with 120.3 million last year. A pattern of building to suit specific needs continues, with many obsolete structures remaining on the market.

Retail Market
Spiking food and energy costs have squeezed retail spending. “Sluggish consumer spending over the next 12 to 18 months will force retail rent growth to turn negative in 2009,” Yun said.
Vacancy rates in the retail sector are expected to be 10.4 percent in the second quarter of 2009, up from 9.7 percent in the second quarter of this year. Average retail rent is estimated to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and then decline by 0.9 percent in 2009, compared with a 3.2 percent increase last year.

Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets should shrink by 2.6 million square feet this year before rising 2.8 million in 2009, down from 11.1 million absorbed last year.

Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – remains favorable as many potential first-time home buyers stay on the sidelines. “Apartment rents are expected to rise at respectable pace, partly due to healthy demand for rental units,” Yun said.

Multifamily vacancy rates are projected to rise to 5.9 percent in the second quarter of 2009 from 5.4 percent in the second quarter of this year. Average rent will probably rise 3.9 percent in 2008 and 4.0 percent next year, up from a 3.1 percent increase in 2007.
Multifamily net absorption is forecast at 61,400 units in 59 tracked metro areas this year and 188,200 in 2009 compared with 234,400 last year.

Commercial Lending Status


Many of my clients have recently asked me if commercial lending is frozen. They've heard this from friends and even lenders. This is simply not true in a general sense. People with relatively low credit scores (less than 700) may have difficulty qualifying for affordable financing and can expect to pay more for loans (higher interest rate, larger down payment, etc.) but loans are still available.

A popular loan program (SBA 7A) allowing for just 10% down with interest rates of 6-8%, but requiring 51% or more owner occupying of the space, is more challenging to qualify for, requiring good credit scores and documented evidence of debt service capability (e.g. income to new debt ratio of 1.3 or greater). This helps the underwriter have confidence that your business's net income will pay the loan payments and then some. If a buyer doesn't qualify for an SBA loan, then a conventional loan program is the next alternative to explore. These typically require 25-30% down payment and have higher interest rates of 7-9%.

If a conventional loan is not possible due to finances or credit score, then owner carryback should be explored next. These private loans can be structured however the Seller and Buyer agree. Low down payments are possible as are low interest rates. Typically though the loan will be for a rather short period of time like 5 years, when a balloon payment for the principal balance is due. During that period, it is important for the new owner to save $, clean up credit issues, and seek alternative financing sources. In some cases, the previous owner lienholder may renew or extend the loan if terms (like interest rate) are still favorable in the marketplace.

If your business operates in a sole proprietorship structure, then your business's net income will flow into your personal finances and may become muddied. Lenders typically prefer an LLC structure to keep the business finances separate from your personal. Seek legal or tax council for advice on which is best for you. Also it's good to speak to a lender prior to seeking financing so that you can transition to the ideal structure and have time to generate financial records that are so vital to obtaining loans.

So it's just not true to generalize lending as "frozen". If you are considering purchasing real estate in or around Tucson AZ, contact me and I'll help you determine a reasonable price to offer, and get you plugged in to some excellent commercial lenders to get you pre-qualified for financing. Then we can develop an accurate offer to bid for the property. It continues to be a sound wealth-building strategy to own real estate, operate your business in part of it, and find good tenants to lease the un-used portion to help you pay your note.
Bert Ratia
Long Realty Commercial
BertR.LongRealty.com
(520) 301-0155

2Q08 Tucson Commercial Real Estate Report




Home sales up more than 20% over last year

Local home sales are on the rise as prices keep falling
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/biz-topheadlines/261681
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.10.2008

Median home prices in Pima County continued to drop in September, and the number of homes sold was up 3.4 percent from August and up nearly 21 percent from September 2007, the Tucson Association of Realtors reported.
The local Realtors group said the sales increase points to a stabilization in the local housing market.
Compared to September 2007 — when the median home price in Pima County was $215,000 — home values have dropped 16 percent. The average sale price in September 2008 was $217,397, down 20 percent.
The association predicted that home prices will begin to rise in 2009.
PIMA COUNTY HOUSING NUMBERS
Annual Sept. 2008 Aug. 2008 Sept. 2007 pct. change
Homes sold 934 903 774 +20.7%*
Median price $180,500 $185,000 $215,000 -16.0%
Average price $217,397 $238,504 $272,396 -20.2%
Pending sales 836 878 989 -15.5%
Active listings 7,858 7,763 9,190 -14.5%
New listings 2,039 1,952 2,497 -18.3%
*Figures rounded to nearest tenth. Source: Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

Monday, July 7, 2008

Sierrita Mountain Shopping Center

I have started a new BLOG for the community around Range Market, 11200 S. Sierrita Mountain Road, Tucson, AZ, to foster discussions on the best usage of 3 x 1 Acre Commercial parcels just south of Range Market that I have listed.

Sierrita Mountain Road & Viking BLOG

Vail Business Professionals

Vail Business Professionals

I belong to VBP, Vail Business Professionals, an organization of more than a dozen area professionals who have joined together to actively promote community involvement within Vail, Arizona.

The VBP meets weekly at the Del Lago Golf Course to share ideas and promote mutual business and community interests. Presently, the group includes a wide range of professionals ranging from banking to real estate, and plans to add additional members over the coming weeks and months.

We look forward to coordinating special events and informational forums to discuss residential and commercial development plans - including the city of Tucson's impact on our town's infrastructure. The VBA would also like to serve as a conduit for the residents of Vail - to the city, county, and state politicians and legislature.

This is an exciting time in our community with a great deal being discussed, planned, and developed.

Come join us in helping our community prosper and grow.

We meet at Del Lago Golf Clubhouse the first 4 Wednesdays of every month at 7:15am. Come check us out and see how we can help you better serve the local community.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Corona de Tucson Fire District Board meeting

Corona de Tucson Fire District Board meeting
Corona de Tucson Fire Dept (right behind Argenziano's Restaurant)
Wed July 15, 2008 @ 7-8pm

Vail Incorporation


Vail to Discuss How to Gain Incorporation

The group Vail Arizona Incorporation Leadership has spoken with city of Tucson officials and learned Tucson leaders are not interested in annexing Vail.

Vail contributes significant taxes and fees to the county and the county uses these revenues to service the needs of other areas in the county.

The only way that our small community will receive any return on the taxes we pay is to establish a local government that is aware of our needs and is willing to use the taxes we pay to address them.

The districts response area is bounded by East Irvington Road, Saguaro Natl Park East, 3693 S. Old Spanish Tr, Colossal Cave Mtn Park, 16721 E Old Spanish Tr, and I-10 up to Milepost 283.

Vail will need about 10 % of its qualified voters to get the item on a Pima County ballot. Then a majority vote in favor of incorporation by the Tucson mayor and City Council will be needed. If the city then approves, a simple majority vote by Vail area residents would lead them to incorporation. Vail would incorporate as a city, which requires a minumum of 3,000 residents. Vail has about 10,000.

Town Hall Meeting
A Vail town hall on incorporation sponsored by the group Vail Arizona Incorporation Leadership is 6-8pm July 16 in the cafetorim at Cienega high School, 12775 E. Mary Ann Cleveland Way. The meeting will include a petition drive and a forum for residents to discuss incorporation.

Vail Website

Monday, June 30, 2008

Hearing on Rincon Copper Mine 6/30/08 @ 6-9pm

Coronado Forest Service Hearing
June 30th, 6:00-9:00pm
Rincon High School, Tucson (corner of 5th and Swan)

From: rinconvalleyis@hotmail.com
To: rinconvalleyis@hotmail.com
Subject: From Elizabeth- A must read for residents and parents of the Vail Unfied School District -Last Chanc
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2008 12:36:18 -0700

Hello All,

Please read and forward to everyone you know in the Vail School district boundaries.

I know your eyes must be glazing over from hearing about the proposed Rosemont Copper Mine, but if you do not hear one other thing, I want you to hear these things. This is OUR community. We all live or work within the 425 square mile boundaries of the Vail Unified School District and this is our LAST CHANCE TO SPEAK PUBLICLY!

Your superintendent and all of us have worked for the past years to grow this community from 1 school to 16. We have no library, we have no community center, we have no sheriff's substation. We have two very small public parks one of which is shared with Cienega High School. Our Pima County bond was just continued to 2009.

We were willing to stand together and ask for what we wanted when it came to our community then. WE have to stand together now and say that it is

*NOT acceptable to use our community as a shipping port. (Port of Tucson at Kolb and Valencia) See the map, our kids would be bussed on the same interstate to Old Vail Middle as mining trucks to and from the Port of Tucson, or to Sahuarita, or to Mexico or to Benson.

*Not acceptable to put our commuting parents, grandparents and high school students at risk on I-10.

*Not acceptable to expose are community to the chemicals, the dust, the diesel, the explosives, the arsenic in the water

*Not acceptable to put our children who live on Highway 83 at daily risk

*Not acceptable to the taxpayers of the Rincon Valley, Corona and COT Fire Districts to bear the financial burden for increased accidents due to a road which cannot sustain these types of vehicles. A highway which is NOT in a fire district.

* Not acceptable to block the surface waters which flow into the Cienega Creeks which turns into the Pantano which feeds Vail Water Company, COT water, Spanish Trail Water, Other well co-ops and private wells.

*Not acceptable to drawn water just west of Corona and then recharge in Avra Valley. The Santa Cruz is a river which flows north!

* Not acceptable to expect the Vail Unified School district to bear the overcrowding burden.

* Not acceptable to kill our wildlife, destroy our recreation areas, demolish native American villages and Vail historic sites. (The VR Ranch, once own by Edward Vail is the now Rosemont Ranch)

* Not acceptable to take away some of the few remaining legal ATV sites.

* It is not acceptable to ask our community to bear the burden of new high intensity electrical transmission lines and substations so that electricity for the proposed mine can be taken from the Vail substation located at Rita Rd and I-10. (according to the mine plan of operations)

*It is not acceptable to hold the first 3 Open Houses during the Vail Unified School District's Spring Break and the last two hearings during the VUSD's modified Summer Vacation. (The first was in Elgin AZ.)

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY! It is NOT Acceptable to DENY the community of nearly 25 thousand registered voters who would be the most affected by the proposed action, whether, negatively or positively, the opportunity to SPEAK ITS MIND at a HEARING IN THE COMMUNITY!

The meeting that had the most comments, aside from the free dinner night was the VAIL open house! (of course!)

It is OUR responsibility to attend the last Coronado Forest Service Hearing on June 30th from 6:00-9:00pm at Rincon High School on the corner of 5th and Swan in Tucson to let them know it is NOT ACCEPTABLE! You do not have to speak but if you want to, sign up is from 5:30-8:30pm. This is not just about Elizabeth being on a tear or a bunch of Old People Nimby, College Student Environvental Wack-a-Doodles with nothing better to do as some would like to imply.

Rincon High School 422 N Arcadia Ave, Tucson, AZ 85711 - 520-232-5600

visit www.hiltonroad.com

see Supervisor Carroll testify
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzTh8f8RU-Y
See Congresswoman Giffords tesify
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im8cELhXipY
See Chairman Elias Speak
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FW63uYa9A4
Vice Mayor City of Tucson Nina Trasoff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0Zb4lkJIWY
Here a Forest Service Rep. Talk about Rosemont Bussing people after feeding them
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6SRPnCTvws

Let me me tell you, they did not jut get people from the south side, they went to Fast Horse Ranch in Vail and Eric Dorman in Corona. You can read the slips showing the names, addresses and phone numbers from the first night at the Forest Service website.
http://www.fs.fed.us/r3/coronado/rosemont/comments.shtml

Whether you are FOR or AGAINST the proposed mine you DESERVE the right to speak without having to drive 40 miles round trip (average- for some it is more, for some it is less)

Monday, June 2, 2008

Growth Survey

The following survey results contain some good demographic & other information surveyed from the local community.

http://growth.azstarnet.com/result/maps
http://growth.azstarnet.com/result/demographics
http://growth.azstarnet.com/result/survey

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Corona de Tucson Fire District Board meeting

Corona de Tucson Fire District Board meeting
Corona de Tucson Fire Dept
Wed May 14, 2008 @ 7-8pm

Santa Rita Foothills community Ass'n meeting

Santa Rita Foothills community Ass'n meeting
Corona de Tucson Fire Dept
May 13, 2008 @ 7pm - 8pm

Rosemont Copper Mine proposal hearing

Rosemont Copper Mine proposal hearing
Elgin Elementary School Cafeteria, 293 Upper Elgin Rd, Elgin Monday May 12, 2008 @ 6pm - 9pm
US Forest Service Hearing